{"id":403389,"date":"2026-07-15T02:15:52","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T05:15:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.notibras.com\/site\/?p=403389"},"modified":"2026-07-14T21:02:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T00:02:37","slug":"nunes-marques-tenta-transformar-pesquisa-seria-em-bolao-de-urna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.notibras.com\/site\/nunes-marques-tenta-transformar-pesquisa-seria-em-bolao-de-urna\/","title":{"rendered":"Nunes Marques tenta transformar pesquisa s\u00e9ria em bol\u00e3o de urna"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nunes Marques n\u00e3o acerta uma. Depois de suspender a divulga\u00e7\u00e3o de uma pesquisa eleitoral, o ministro e presidente do TSE agora prop\u00f5e a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de um \u201cselo de acerto\u201d para os institutos de pesquisa. A ideia seria premiar as empresas cujos levantamentos apresentassem resultados mais pr\u00f3ximos do resultado final das urnas. Especialistas e representantes de institutos consideram a proposta um erro grave, pois ela parte de uma compreens\u00e3o equivocada sobre a finalidade das pesquisas eleitorais.<\/p>\n

Pesquisa eleitoral n\u00e3o \u00e9 previs\u00e3o do futuro. Ela \u00e9, antes de tudo, a fotografia de um determinado momento. O levantamento mostra o que os entrevistados responderam naquele per\u00edodo, dentro de uma metodologia, de uma amostra e de uma margem de erro. At\u00e9 o dia da vota\u00e7\u00e3o, o eleitor pode mudar de opini\u00e3o, escolher outro candidato, decidir n\u00e3o votar ou deixar de estar indeciso.<\/p>\n

Premiar apenas os institutos que chegarem mais perto do resultado das urnas pode at\u00e9 estimular distor\u00e7\u00f5es, como a realiza\u00e7\u00e3o de pesquisas cada vez mais pr\u00f3ximas da elei\u00e7\u00e3o ou metodologias pensadas para tentar adivinhar o futuro. O papel do TSE deveria ser garantir transpar\u00eancia, fiscaliza\u00e7\u00e3o e respeito \u00e0s regras, n\u00e3o transformar pesquisas s\u00e9rias em uma competi\u00e7\u00e3o de palpites. Pesquisa serve justamente para captar as oscila\u00e7\u00f5es da opini\u00e3o p\u00fablica, e n\u00e3o para anunciar antecipadamente quem vencer\u00e1 a elei\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nunes Marques n\u00e3o acerta uma. Depois de suspender a divulga\u00e7\u00e3o de uma pesquisa eleitoral, o ministro e presidente do TSE agora prop\u00f5e a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de um \u201cselo de acerto\u201d para os institutos de pesquisa. A ideia seria premiar as empresas cujos levantamentos apresentassem resultados mais pr\u00f3ximos do resultado final das urnas. Especialistas e representantes de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":403390,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[235],"tags":[],"tmauthors":[306],"class_list":["post-403389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-dona-irene"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNunes Marques tenta transformar pesquisa s\u00e9ria em bol\u00e3o de urna - Notibras<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.notibras.com\/site\/nunes-marques-tenta-transformar-pesquisa-seria-em-bolao-de-urna\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nunes Marques tenta transformar pesquisa s\u00e9ria em bol\u00e3o de urna - Notibras\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nunes Marques n\u00e3o acerta uma. Depois de suspender a divulga\u00e7\u00e3o de uma pesquisa eleitoral, o ministro e presidente do TSE agora prop\u00f5e a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de um \u201cselo de acerto\u201d para os institutos de pesquisa. A ideia seria premiar as empresas cujos levantamentos apresentassem resultados mais pr\u00f3ximos do resultado final das urnas. 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